Singapore · vehicle ownership

P.M.L.O.L.

Predicting Motoring Levels, Obviously Ludicrous

Next tender · forecast

Next tender outlook

Latest COE result: latest result in the embedded COE snapshot — September 2026, Exercise 2.

Category A · small cars

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Forecast details

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Latest premium—

Bids / quota—

Registration trend—

Adjust scenario

Expected next-round quota · A

Optional scenario input only; blank uses latest observed quota (1,193). No next-round quota forecast is published.

Category B · large cars

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Forecast details

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Latest premium—

Bids / quota—

Registration trend—

Adjust scenario

Expected next-round quota · B

Optional scenario input only; blank uses latest observed quota (927). No next-round quota forecast is published.

Model estimate, not an official LTA result. Its range summarizes recent history; it is not a probability guarantee.

Recent registrations

Monthly LTA counts · registrations lag orders and tenders

Cat ACat B

Source: LTA New Registration by Quota (M02). This measures registrations, not bookings or dealer order books.

Scenario signals (optional)

Add a scenario signal

Signal / headline

Source URL · required

Factor type

Category

Expected demand effect

Scenario size

Active through

Event date

One signal contributes a bounded heuristic overlay; not a measured bid count.

Signal method & sources

How to read this: the center estimate combines a damped recent-price trend, bid pressure versus the category's trailing median, latest quota versus recent quota, and the latest 3-month registration change. Scenario news and launch factors are explicit analyst overlays, not machine-read forecasts. The BYD ATTO 1 Cat A launch is preloaded at +0.50% until 10 Oct; post-launch LTA registration data is not yet available in this snapshot. No public dealer booking/order-book feed is used.

Signals: MTI 2026 GDP outlook · BYD ATTO 1 launch/specs · LTA quota release · LTA open-bidding results

Model method & limitations

Model limits: each central 50% historical range uses the 25th–75th percentiles of the latest 21 available cross-month moves (Exercise 2 to next Exercise 1) for that category, applied to the point estimate. This is empirical coverage, not a guaranteed next-tender probability; sample sizes are small and historical COE/news/LTA effects cannot be separated or filtered in this data. Registration history is refreshed monthly from the official monthly registration dataset; on the hosted dashboard, GitHub Actions refreshes it on the 16th at 15:30 Singapore time. COE tender results refresh Wednesdays and Thursdays at 15:30 Singapore time. Scheduled Actions runs may be delayed by GitHub; these are target times, not exact-time guarantees. Global/geopolitical factors have no automatic adjustment unless a dated, source-linked signal is added.

Browse historical data

Current and Historical COE Data

Auto update scheduled for Wednesdays and Thursdays at 15:30 Singapore time; keep this page open.